December 1-7 (2009)

There are at least five sensible presidential candidates in the May 2010 national elections who are in the forefront for the quest for the highest elective post in the Philippines. Other aspirants are either nuisance candidates or have already bowed out of contention either for lack of political machinery or money to run their campaigns.

However, except for one, they have no clear platforms on the Moro Question; and therefore, the chance for war to happen is most likely than peace in this region. Presidential candidate Noynoy Aquino has a clear agenda for the continuation of the peace talks with the MILF. Perhaps, this is borne out of the fact both his father, Senator Benigno Aquino Jr. and her mother, the late President Corazon Aquino, were not bloody-minded people; they were not anti-Moro either. Senator Manny Villar, another aspirant, has no clear policy statement on the peace talks with the MILF. Because, he is more of a businessman rather than a politician, he rarely adopts a militant view, the intrinsic character of people of this profession. However, former but ousted-and-later-convicted-but-eventually-pardoned President Joseph Estrada has a clear-cut deal with rebel groups including the MILF: “Once elected, he will launch all-out war against them.” Estrada is a compulsive war freak similar to a raging bull that throws itself even into a ravine. Before he realizes he is in trouble, he is already enmeshed in a hellish situation. Former National Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, also a presidential candidate, has a similar hawkish policy: “Rebels to surrender first and negotiation is to be conducted on unequal terms.” From how he speaks and his body language, he appears more rancorous and vituperative; the essential symptoms of men who struggle to become true masculine.

Gauging from the above, peace talks could probably continue with Aquino, but it is doubtful with Villar. War is certain with Estrada, but it will be most likely with Teodoro.

For the MILF, the primacy of the pacific ways of resolving conflict has always been emphasized since its inception in 1977. But it does not and has never run away from an imposed war; the bloody wars in 2000, 2003, and 2008 are clear examples of this firm stand. It views the path to the liberation of the Bangsamoro people as full of humps and bumps; it is always never easy, like going to picnic.

Now the people of the Philippines especially those in Mindanao have to decide which one they prefer, war or peace talks. The choice is very easy: If they want peace, they must go for Noynoy, Villar or perhaps even Protestant Pastor Eddie Villanueva; if they want war, they must go for Estrada or Teodoro.

But these variables are not constant; they can change as the campaigns heightened and strategic and tactical assessments are made from time to time. Their policies can also change once anyone of them wins the presidency as pressure groups, lobbyists, vested interest groups, including international pressures, etc. start to mount. After all, state decisions are not made without taking into considerations other interests.