January 23 – 31 (2010)

Former but ousted President Joseph Estrada must have been the happiest man on earth after the Commission on Election (Comelec) ruled that he is eligible to run for president despite his impeachment by the Senate in 2001. Fascinated, his instant words were “why just be a ‘kingmaker’ when you can be the ‘king’ yourself?”

However, similar to a boxing bout, winning the first round, second, or third round does not mean automatic victory. His victory in the Comelec is just the first round of a long and arduous legal tussle to ensure that he will be disqualified to run again for the presidency. In this country, the final arbiter is the Supreme Court; and this issue will be brought there by people or groups who want him disqualified for his dismal failure when he was first elected president in 1998. Surely, one of the arguments in opposing him run again is that if he were a good leader why was he impeached when he has all the powers to thwart this off, which brings to the conclusion that, indeed, the evidence against him as it was established by the Senate was overwhelming that warranted his impeachment. He is therefore an incompetent leader. Estrada by his own acts and admission is a womanizer, gambler, and inveterate drinker (at times drinking up to the wee hour of the morning with peers and friends).

Take alone this habitual drunkenness. Drinking is one act that could cause the destruction of a nation, because when the head of state is drunk or is always drunk, he is abnormal and cannot think rationally. How many lives lost, accidents happened, families broken, bad decisions made, because of drunkenness? We do not have the exact data but just read the newspapers, watch television, and open radio stations everyday, and we will be able to know the extent of the damage as a result of drunkenness especially on the road; and yet, people buy this drunkenness everybody. And Estrada is one of them.

Take this another cue. Even before he gets elected, Estrada has already made two major policy statements: 1) He will declare another all-out war against the MILF like the one he did in 2000; and 2) To legalize gambling in the Philippines especially jueteng (a sort of number game).

A president making war a national policy? And game of chance fast becoming a part of Filipino legal system or practices?

The Filipino voters are not stupid. Even the “masses” whom Estrada bragged he represented are not stupid to be wooed again by a man who proved he cannot even save himself and how much for others? Estrada now is not the Estrada in 1998. But as to whether he is bad now or worse, we do not know. The best decision is not to try him again; surely, he will fail the Filipinos and there is going to be war in Mindanao.

However, if by chance Estrada will get elected, the MILF is least bothered even if he launches another all-out war. The MILF does not want war and is very consistent in adopting the way of peace as the “most practical and civilized way” of addressing the Moro Question in Mindanao, but at the same time it is always ready to defend itself especially against an imposed war. The MILF has already attained that impregnability that it is almost impossible to defeat it militarily or any combination of approaches. And more importantly, the path of peace has already earned international support and any party that resorts to way of violence will have very hard time justifying it. We do not know if Estrada has that sophistication of grasping the real impact of his forte’, the all-out war mentality.